A Alelmand on two rather see Nicolas Sarkozy won the presidential election, a four qur Francois Hollande. Others do not care.
A German on two rather see Nicolas Sarkozy won the French presidential election and 55% of Germans support the policy of fiscal austerity Angela Merkel, according to a poll published Friday. According to the survey published in the German daily Die Welt, the German answer to 50% "Sarkozy" to the question: "What French President, the German perspective, would be the best choice?".
Of those polled, only 24% cite Francois Hollande. Other (26%) do not know or are not interested in the subject. When asked what they think the appropriate policy in this time of crisis for the euro: "maintain a policy of fiscal austerity or launch programs for growth," 55% of respondents advocate rigor advocated by Chancellor Angela Merkel . Only 33% say they prefer growth programs.
The survey was conducted among a representative sample of 1,004 people between April 30 and May 1.
Vivendi has been considering its strategy and investment banks are preparing proposals for divestiture or restructuring to try and halt the plunge in its stock price, several sources have told Reuters.
The difficulties of SFR, the leading provider of liquidity, led the Board to revive the old debate about the relevance of a model combining media and telecoms and put under pressure its number one Jean-Bernard Levy.
Facing the bronca shareholders embittered by a share price at its lowest for nine years, President of the Supervisory Board Jean-Rene Fourtou promised last month that the conglomerate would not remain idly and that all subjects would be put on the table, no "taboo".
Jean-Bernard Levy told Reuters on his side to the group questioned constantly on optimizing its business portfolio.
"There is no doubt that they are in full introspection on what to do," said one investment banker. "Until now, the board supported management and strategy, but the situation becomes critical and there may be a split."
Investors who dream of a quick and radical, however, may have to be patient despite the excitement in the markets by the situation mentioned by Bloomberg for dismantling and the arrival of man in the capital stock shots, Vincent Bolloré.
The contractor, who is poised to sell its conglomerate channels Direct 8 Direct and Star in exchange for Vivendi shares, wants to be a long-term shareholder and looks forward to working with the council rather than to impose its views at the outset, according to two people familiar with the CEO of Bolloré.
Most importantly, the tandem-Fourtou Levy, who oversaw the reconstruction of Vivendi after the debacle of the Messier era in 2002, is still in command.
Under the leadership of two men, Vivendi has cleaned up its financial position, streamlined its structure by acquiring minority stakes and settled a series of disputes.
The group also made acquisitions including that of the fast-growing operator GVT and tried to create synergies between its divisions with mixed success, however.
BACK TO SQUARE ONE
"All these years later, it is quite ironic that the group returned to square one: the action is at its lowest, there is still no synergies between the different business and it will be even harder to sell assets whose value has declined, "said one former executive of the group.
In a letter to shareholders dated March 27, the two leaders again rejected the idea that Vivendi would be a collection of unrelated activities with each other while judging " excessive "the conglomerate discount applied to the title, estimated at 40% by Jean-Rene Fourtou.
The challenge now is whether the group, which has previously rejected the dismantling scenarios, could this time take the plunge and abandon its hybrid structure.
"We can probably 216,000 scenarios, I do not fit into one of the 216,000 scenarios," said Jean-Bernard Levy told Reuters when he was asked about this hypothesis.
A seminar with the direction in June will be an opportunity to discuss the strategy and scope of Vivendi but a spokesman said the group meeting was held annually for several years and it was unlikely that it leads to major announcements.
According to several sources familiar with the matter, no bank has so far been commissioned for a sale or restructuring.
In a note, credit analysts at Société Générale consider the hypothesis of "break-up" unlikely unless a departure of Jean-Bernard Levy under pressure because of the difficulties of SFR.
The action of Vivendi has lost over 30% since its acquisition in April 2011 of the total SFR against 7.95 billion euros, an operation expected to result in a boost for the stock market Title and a dividend increase.
The arrival nine months later Free on the mobile market, has destabilized the operator which provides for 2012 down 12 to 15% in operating profit . Vivendi cut its dividend and the difference between the total assets of the group and its market capitalization has increased.
The AIGUILLON BOLLORÉ
Jean-Bernard Levy took the reins of SFR directly before passing the baton to a new CEO in the summer, with the promise to "tighten the bolts" within which the subsidiary recovery is deemed crucial to right the course of the action and for his personal future, according to several sources.
In this context heckled, the group is studying its options, reported by observers and bankers who do not see much to fix.
"Everything is reviewed. When they write in their letter to shareholders that nothing is taboo, it is a call for bankers to offer ideas, "said a person familiar with the group ….
….. "Unfortunately, it's not as simple as what people think when you look at the structure of the group"
.
According to sources, banks are working on a script assignment of Morocco Telecom, whose margin was still 55% last year despite a drop in sales
. Vivendi could also relaunch the IPO of Canal + France initiated last year by its other shareholder Lagardère before be suspended or sell its 60% stake in the video game publisher Activision Blizzard, the U.S. side.
But the sale of Telecom Morocco, 30% owned by the Kingdom of Morocco, could face political issues, indicates the same person, adding that the operations which appear more affluent, as Activision, have little influence on the other hand on the vision of the market prospects of Vivendi.
Some investors are pinning their hopes on the arrival in the capital of Vincent Bolloré, reputedly close to Jean-Rene Fourtou who said he would be welcome to the board.
A source close to the entrepreneur Vincent Bolloré hopes to reach 5% of the combined effect of the sale of its DTT channels and purchasing title to market. Societe Generale has recently become the largest shareholder with 7.86% of the conglomerate's capital.
"The emergence of a shareholder can bring a little more pressure on management will be forced to be accountable," said Gilles Guibout, portfolio manager at ; AXA Investment Management.
At the head of a family group, the entrepreneur would not invest one billion euros in Vivendi without an idea in mind, argues one contributor.
Wall Street has won more than 0.5% Wednesday, ending a series of five sessions of declines, driven by soaring title Alcoa after the gen ant aluminum, which opened Tuesday the "earnings season" has reported an unexpected profit for the first quarter.
The Dow Jones industrials gained 30 0.70% or 89.46 points, to 12,805.39 points. The S & P-500, wider, took 10.12 points, or 0.74%, to 1368.71 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced on his side of 25.24 points (0.84%) to 3,016.46 points.
Tuesday, within the scope of concerns about global economic conditions and, perhaps, of a correction, the S & P 500 benchmark index of the managers fund, had fallen under its 50-day moving average for the first time since December.
Cyclical sectors, which have fallen sharply in recent days, took advantage of a movement to purchase cheap, the fund financial echoing 1.59%, including a gain of 3.75% to 8 , $ 86 for Bank of America.
The action Alcoa has closed up 6.34% to 9.90 dollars after the group, considered a good barometer of the U.S. industrial sector, has emerged, to everyone's surprise, a positive net income in the first quarter of 2012, benefiting from improved market conditions.
"Expectations were very low so a positive start to the earnings season is a positive sign," said Jack Ablin, Investment Officer at Harris Private Bank.
"That said, we can take stock of the health of other sectors throughout the week and the market will perhaps stand still before a complete picture."
Google, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup are among the heavyweights of the American side who must publish their interim results this week …. The fall of some
….. 1.5% S & P 500 Tuesday was most marked in four months. Investors are now assessing whether the downturn on Wall Street-which is up sharply since the beginning of the year is an opportunity to enter a market that remains on a good launch e last six months.
Two hours before the end of the session, in its "Beige Book", the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economy had continued to grow over the last months of winter, adding that rising gasoline prices starting to worry consumers and businesses throughout the country.
This appreciation of the Fed had little impact on the trend of the day.
Concerns about the debt crisis of the euro area eased somewhat after the statements of Benedict Coeuré, board member of the European Central Bank (ECB), saying that the purchase of government bonds remained a weapon available to the ECB.
The Apple stock lost 0.36% to 626.20 dollars after the U.S. Department of Justice announced legal action against Apple and two large e publishers for agreement on the price of electronic books.
The way Johnson & Johnson has little reaction (-0.11% to 64.13 dollars) a verdict of a judge of the State of Arkansas saying that the pharmaceutical company was fined a , 1 billion dollars after being convicted by a jury of having used illegal tactics to market a drug.
After a record year 2011, property transactions are spread downwards, credit dries up and prices began to decline. In short, all signs of a turnaround in the market are there. The question is what will be its magnitude. . The reasons for the sales record in 2011
The real estate prices continued to rise last year but this has not prevented sales of existing homes to beat their time record. According to the report released Thursday by the notaries of France, some 858,200 transactions were recorded last year, up 9% from 2010. In fact, only sales in the Province recorded a record with a jump of 14% over one year. The Ile de France, however, suffers a fall of 8%. This exceptional performance overall is therefore explained in part by the boom in sales of second homes. And would therefore be the consequence of the change in the taxation on real estate gains, which came into force in February. Indeed, we see a surge in transactions in the Tarn (31%), Correze (28%) and in the Pyrenees-Atlantiques (24%). Add to this the prospect of stopping interest loan in the former in late 2011 that prompted first-time buyers to anticipate an acquisition. Nearly 300,000 homes have indeed been funded in part by this system in 2011.
The reversal observed in early 2012
Such dynamics do not observe this year. The reasons are promoted in 2011 – the planned abolition of tax incentives – rather play against the market. Bazaille Pierre, president of the property market notaries, table and a decline in transactions from 15 to 20% in 2012, representing a range of 700 to 740,000. A reversal has already begun and abruptly, as evidenced by the unprecedented collapse of home loans. According to the Bank of France, the amount of home loans granted in February was the lowest in 32 months, falling by 41% compared to January and by 49% compared to February 2011. And this trend continued in March according to the Housing Credit Monitoring that evokes a fall in the amounts awarded by 36% over the first quarter, compared to the same period last year.
"The decline is alarming. Such a sharp decline was not foreseen, is concerned Mouillard Michel, professor of economics at University of Paris X Nanterre in charge of this observatory. In 2011, production reached 160 credit billion. This year it should rise to 120 billion, or slightly less. " And to emphasize "a drop of this magnitude is unprecedented," even during the 2009 crisis. Ditto when property prices had soared between 1989 and 1992: the decline in home loans that result had reached only 15 to 18%.
For him it is a sign that "everything is going to crash, even on the market of large cities." A pessimism that also feeds on the situation in the nine, the number of housing starts collapsed since the beginning of the year. "We have never seen a level of construction as low since 1986" says he. Notaries, themselves, are less alarmist. They believe that Paris and the vibrant cities of province, like Nice, Lyon, Lille, Bordeaux, Nantes, Montpellier, lower volumes may be limited to around 5%.
The reasons for the reversal
The tax reasons – the end of PTZ + in the old or the disappearance of Scellier in nine – are not the only explanation for the drop in home loans, and therefore transactions. The changing attitude of banks also plays a role. "Besides being confontées to slower growth or even recession, European banks are facing new prudential rules and have a capital ratio more important," said Marc Touati, chief economist of the financial holding company Assya. Incentives to limit risks, they are much more selective in granting loans, imposing more restrictions on prospective borrowers (need input, etc..).
The market downturn also reflects the uncertain economy, the unemployment rate is rising and the prospect of higher taxes for 2012. Results for Nicolas Tarnaud, an expert in real estate, "we fail to commit more over time, we will rent. And first-time buyers are the first affected." Finally, the French expect the outcome of the presidential election.
In short, demand is sluggish, "depressed" for Michel Mouillard. "This is the first time we observed an important loosening of intentions to purchase real estate," said the academic. A recent survey of the observatory Housing Credit / CSA, only 4% of households say they want to buy property in the next six months, down 29% compared to 2009.
Finally, property prices are still at historically high levels. From 2000 to 2011, they more than doubled in France (117%), even more in Ile-de-France (+138%), and almost tripled in Paris (186%). While household incomes, these, only increased by 26% over the same period. Reflecting a shift, according to some, the existence of a housing bubble that can only end up deflating, or even explode.
What price decline in 2012?
The question is whether such a crash is possible. Notaries exclude the hypothesis and favor a simple soft landing. "2012 will be a year of correction and sobering price," sums up Peter Bazaille. For the full year, they expect a 5% decline in the most tense areas in terms of supply as Paris and some regional cities. The rest of the territory, they anticipate a decline "more or less pronounced", 5 to 10% depending on the area.
Marc Touati plans to share a scenario a bit rougher. "Whatever the outcome of the presidential election, the note of France may be degraded, he says. In this case, the rate of OAT (obligation akin to treasure) would increase by one point, and it would be the same for credit rate, which could rise to 6% or 7%. "In this case, Economist expects a decline of 10 to 15% of property prices
. For his part, Michel Mouillart refuses to talk down price. This does not prevent him from displaying his pessimism. "For now, the market collapses, with 20 to 30% less activity in 2012, and the problem is that n 'there is no prospect of a rebound. And we do not see how to get out of bottoming "
.
Unemployment in the euro area reached a high of almost fifteen years in February, with more than 17 million unemployed, and economists expect a further deterioration in this years.
The unemployment rate in the 17 countries in the region stood at 10.8% of the workforce, up 0.1 points from January, according to data published are from Eurostat.
"We expect that it continues to rise, reaching 11% by the end of the year," said Raphael Brun-Aguerre, economist at JP Morgan in London.
"There are redundancies in the public sector, incomes are falling, consumption is sluggish. The prospect of economic growth is negative and will reinforce unemployment, "he said
. The level reached in Feb February – for the first time since June 1997 – reflects the tenth consecutive month, an opposite trend to that enjoyed by the U.S. economy, credit e jobs since last year
. Economists are divided on the effectiveness of austerity policies adopted es by European governments to reduce their debt, the economic crisis affecting tax revenues, the purchasing power of consumers and investors' confidence that collapsed the year last.
Other statistics released Monday show a contraction of manufacturing in the euro area for the eighth consecutive month in March, reinforcing fears of recession in the European bloc.
North-South disparities
Despite these negative outlook, the European Central Bank (ECB) should maintain its interest rates to 1% at its monthly meeting Wednesday, rising oil prices keeping inflation above 2%, the limit under which it intends to maintain it.
"With inflation remains stubbornly high in the euro area, there is little hope of a recovery in consumption," said Jennifer McKeown, an analyst at Capital Markets.
The debates between members of the ECB in Frankfurt are more complicated than expected a little more optimistic this year fizzled, the contraction of the activity in manufacturing and construction affecting even Germany, the strongest economy of the area.
On the employment front, the northern countries of Europe, however, remain better off than their southern partners, whose economies are sealed by years of uncontrolled ready , an inadequate labor laws and a very competitive industry.
The unemployment rate remained stable in Germany and to 5.7% of the workforce in February, when it peaked around the Mediterranean, from 9.3% in Italy to 24% in Spain, which holds the sad record of the euro area.
The Spanish government has yet to unveil a great austerity budget aimed at saving € 27 billion more by the end of 2012 to fulfill the goal of deficit of 5.2% of GDP and regain investor confidence.
Beyond the euro area, the unemployment rate in all 27 countries of the European Union amounted to 10.2% of the workforce in February , or 24.5 million unemployed, against 10.1% in January.
The Slovenian subsidiary of Renault announced Thursday it would cut production in April and would eliminate 13% of positions at about 2220, due to lower sales in Europe.
"We have had in recent months a decline in orders resulting from a severe contraction of the European market. Because market conditions do not improve (…) we don ' will more probably night shift on April 26, "said the subsidiary Revoz, which produces models Twingo, Clio and Wind.
Production Revoz had peaked at 212,860 cars in 2009, falling to 174,127 in 2011. The subsidiary did not provide a target for this year.
The night shift existed since 2007 but was suspended from May to September 2011 due to a shortage of electronic parts produced in Japan, a direct consequence of earthquake of March 11.
Revoz said she planned to increase the number of positions in the second half of 2013, when it will produce two new models to be developed under the partnership between Renault-Nissan and Daimler.
The new car registrations have fallen sharply again in February in the euro area, mainly due to the weakness of French and Italian markets, announced Thursday the European manufacturers association of motor.
The hypothesis of an ouster of CEO of Veolia Environnement in favor of Mr. Frérot Borloo, after a maneuver made by the boss of EDF Proglio, close to Nicolas Sarkozy, sparked a lively debate Monday. The Elysée to maneuver to place Borloo Veolia? The accusation is "absurd", according to the Sarkozy camp.
"The arrangements between friends of Fouquet's''," a president of the combined business and "" … These are some qualifications of the various political parties to protest a possible arrival of Borloo to head Veolia. Mentioned by the Les Echos newspaper in its Monday edition, the news continues to generate reactions from different political parties. According to several media, Mr. Proglio, former CEO of Veolia director left, wants "the head of Antoine Frérot", his successor, and has heard "at the beginning of last week" on his replacement by Mr. Borloo, former Minister of Ecology and former government number two.
Source close to the council, seven directors Proglio support the project, seven against and three are still undecided, that seeks to convince Alain Minc, another close to Nicolas Sarkozy. Officially, everyone is silent. Neither Veolia Environnement, nor EDF nor the entourage Borloo made any comments. In its presidential campaign, all the opposition – left, center and FN together – is leapt to denounce a "conflict of interests" and "arrangements between friends of Fouquet's", the Sarkozy camp attempting to extinguish Fire minimizing simple "press rumors".
Sarkozy: "It's absurd"
"Republic How are we?", Has protested Monday Francois Hollande, the Socialist candidate for favorite presidential polls, Nicolas Sarkozy in lampooning "the candidate of confusion, arrangements". Same story for Europe Ecology Party the Greens (EELV). This is a "farce", denounced the environmentalist Eva Joly, citing a "conflict of interests rarely seen" and "contempt of the Republic". "Before leaving, Sarkozy puts his friends," added the National Front, while the modem call to "turn the page on these practices." "It is abnormal that the policy interferes in the affairs of a private group like Veolia. What credit do we give to the group to negotiate with local authorities?" Railed Deroubaix Hervé, Steward CFDT.
For his part, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, speaking as Minister of Ecology, denied "formally" any government involvement in the possible appointment of Jean-Louis Borloo. "Veolia is a company under private law, the government does not meddle in any way the choices made by its directors. It does not get involved now and do not mingle in it ", she told AFP. According to Le Parisien, Proglio seek to ensure his rear in case of arrival of the left power in May Nicolas Sarkozy swept the controversy with the back of the hand. the head of state on Monday described BFMTV "absurd" the hypothesis of an intervention by the Elysée. "The Elysee would be behind a possible appointment "of Borloo to Veolia, the question does one out of his campaign headquarters, in the fifteenth district." It's absurd, "he épondu …. …..
The planned sale by BP of an interest in a subsidiary in South America representing seven billion dollars (5.1 billion) has been canceled, which could complicate the will of the British oil giant to increase its dividends.
CNOOC, the first Chinese offshore oil producer, said on Sunday that its 50% subsidiary Bridas Energy Holdings had terminated an agreement for the purchase of 60% held by BP in Pan American Energy (PAE), oil and gas company based in Argentina.
When publishing its quarterly results last month, BP said it would announce an increase in its dividend in early 2012.
Dexia has given Thursday launched the final phase of its dismantling by validating the sale of subsidiaries whose Franco-Belgian bank must dispose as part of its rescue plan.
Dexia held on the night of Wednesday to Thursday a board of directors also approved the nationalization of the Belgian retail banking for four billion euros and confirmed negotiations with the Caisse des Depots (CDC) and the Postal Bank to redraw the area of financing of French local authorities.
First victim of bank scale of the crisis of sovereign debt in the euro area, Dexia should exist only as a holding company listed in Brussels which will combine the activities of financial services to the public sector in France, Spain, Italy and Germany.
"The council me (…) Mandated to finalize the sale of RBC Dexia (services to institutional investors) and to transfer the asset management subsidiary of Dexia Asset Management and the Turkish subsidiary DenizBank, "said the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Pierre Mariani to Les Echos.
"The sale process of the International Bank in Luxembourg is being finalized," he added.
Ten days ago, Luc Frieden, Luxembourg's finance minister, told a group of Qatar, a member of the royal family Al Thani was ready to buy the Luxembourg branch of Dexia.
On the French front, the Board approved the proposed acquisition by the CDC and the Postal Bank to 65% and 5% stake in Dexia Municipal Agency (Dexma), the company that refinances loans granted by Dexia Credit Local (DCL) to French local authorities.
Dexia is committed to providing Dexma guarantees on a portfolio of 10 billion euros in loans structured agreements with French local authorities.
TOXIC LOANS
To do this, Dexia benefit itself against a guarantee of France, up to 70% of losses exceeding 500 million euros.
Besides the excitement caused by this second rescue plan, Dexia is in the center of intense controversy after granting loans considered toxic to many local communities.
But the pursuit of the activity of local public sector loans will no longer be performed by Dexia Credit Local, but by a joint venture owned respectively 65% and 35% by La Banque Postale and the CDC.
Dexia shows that if the workings of this new venture and Dexma based in part on teams Dexia Credit Local, the future of this subsidiary and its employees raised the fear of the unions.
Indeed, the core business of MCI – the financing of French local authorities – will be conducted by the Deposit Bank and post.
The Board of Directors of Dexia has nevertheless sought reassurance about the outlook for Dexia Credit Local, which, according to his statement, will remain "involved in local funding and will continue to offer a wide range of financial products and services to its customers in the public ".
The Dexia share is worth more today than 0.61 euro. She lost three quarters of its value since the beginning of the year after falling nearly 39% in 2010.
European values have erased their gains after the warning by the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, who said that the EU summit this weekend will not provide a definitive solution to the crisis in the euro area.
Shortly after 1100 GMT, the CAC-40 was a downward trend, while the DAX, down 0.64%, ironing below 6000 points.
Shortly before, in the hope of a resolution of the next debt crisis, the European stock markets marked significant increases.
"The meeting of G20 finance ministers this weekend confirmed the hopes of the market for the rapid implementation of a plan to end the crisis. Policies are not allowed to make mistakes in terms of communication .The slightest disappointment will result in a violent reaction to the decline in equity markets coming back to 15% in 10 days, "said Franklin Pichard, director of Barclays Bourse.
A judge of Courbevoie (Hauts-de-Seine) on Monday ordered placement under guardianship of the heir to L'Oreal, Liliane Bettencourt, at the request of his daughter, on the basis of an expert who enters a state of Dementia.
This decision means that assets and income of the billionaire 88 years, including 30% of shares that give voting rights to the Board of Directors of L'Oréal, will now be run by the daughter of the billionaire, Françoise Meyers and her children.
The title L'Oreal was up 1.94%.
The court decision does not change the agreements between the family and Nestlé, specify in a statement Françoise Meyers and his two son. The title of the Swiss food group declined by 0.29%.
Intervention by Wolfgang Schäuble has also pushed back the euro, which lost nearly 0.8% against the dollar at 1.3773 / 1.3774. Similarly, Bunds, who retreated because of hopes of resolving the crisis, have started to increase.
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