European shares opened lower Friday, risk aversion intensified significantly after Fitch downgraded Greece Moody's and that of several Spanish banks.
At 9:02, the CAC 40 index, which lost 1.2% Thursday, yields 0.74% to 2989.85 points.
The London Stock Exchange drops 0.88%, the Frankfurt up 0.9% and 2.02% fall of Madrid. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 1.03%.
Fitch Ratings downgraded the sovereign rating Thursday of Greece "B-" to "CCC", citing the growing risk of the country leaving the eurozone.
Moody's lowered the rating Thursday from 16 Spanish banks, including Santander SAN.MC, the largest in the euro area, suggesting the reduced capacity of the Spanish State to provide financial support to ; more of them.
The Stoxx European banks index was down 1.56%.
Illustrating the renewed risk aversion of investors, the 10-year rate of borrowing has fallen under German 1.4%, against 1.43% the day before closing.
On the foreign exchange market, the euro continues to trade at less than $ 1.27, to 1.2660 dollar.
The German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, however, considered that the current turmoil in financial markets should subside within one to two years.
Cash lenders will loan anything from a couple of hundred dollars to around $1500, which generally must be paid back in full, along with the interest, within two to four weeks.
Lagardère announced Monday the launch of a bid for the company LeGuide.com, publisher of the website of the same name, at a price of 24 euros per share, valuing the comparator prices at about 84 million euros.
The media group headed by Arnaud Lagardère hopes to complete its digital portfolio that already includes the particular site or financial information Boursier.com Doctissimo.fr , bought in 2008.
The offer of the media group, which is the entire capital of LeGuide.com, will be open from 9 May to 12 June
The price represents a premium of 31.2% over the average as the company three months, 25.4% on average in one month and 20.5% from its last closing price, May 4, Lagardere said in a statement.
"Lagardere Active wishes to preserve the autonomy of management and leadership team LeGuide.com maintain the policy of employment and entrepreneurial culture that made its success since its inception" the company adds.
Present in 14 European countries, LeGuide.com, which compares the offers of more than 76,000 online merchants, claiming an audience of 28.9 million unique visitors.
For the offer to be validated, the total shares held by Lagardère and tendered should be at least 51% stake in the company.
The operation will also receive a green light from regulatory authorities in Germany and Austria.
The leader of PASOK, Evangelos Venizelos, announced Saturday its economic program a week early parliamentary elections in Greece, promising reforms on liberalization professions rather than tax increases.
The party of former Socialist Minister of Finance, who played a key role in the financial rescue of Greece by the EU and the IMF last year, is ahead in polls voting intentions by his conservative rival, New Democracy.
PASOK came to power in 2009 with nearly 44% of the votes, May 6 should get between 14 and 19% of the vote, voters blaming him for the harsh treatment of austerity imposed by the donor in exchange for their financial support.
Evangelos Venizelos took the reins of a party in February capilotade in succeeding former Prime Minister George Papandreou. At the time, PASOK enjoyed a popularity rating of just 8%.
The new leader pledged Saturday not to declare the general fall in wages and pensions as long as the country continues on the path of reform.
"No Greek citizen should live in fear of what will be done in June," has tried to reassure the Socialist leader, referring to the new crackdown announced for next month's parliamentary elections. "We pledge (on this point) and we assure you that no new tax will be imposed."
He added before a crowd of enthusiastic supporters: "On the contrary, we will focus on structural reforms in order to have a state smaller and less expensive, open market and professions ; s and to allow everyone free access to economic activities and production. "
Last week, the leader of New Democracy, Antonis Samaras, promised if he wins election to cut taxes and increase social spending while meeting commitments budget set by foreign donors.
New Democracy and PASOK are the only two major political parties to support the Greek bailout the nation's finances, which bends under the burden of debt.
Bank of Japan announced Friday a further easing of monetary policy, pledging one hand to increase its program of asset purchases of 10,000 billion yen (94 billion euros) and secondly to acquire government bonds of longer maturities.
Despite signs of growing a resumed third largest economy, Japan's central bank and takes measures to support activity for the second time in just over two months and displays its determination to fight against the phenomenon of deflation beating down the country for over ten years.
Economists had expected an increase in the program of asset purchases two times lower. The BoJ has also surprised by announcing that it would expand its purchases of riskier assets such as Exchange Traded Funds and REITs.
"The BoJ has a bit more than what we expected, then its decision is a surprise" said Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPMorgan Securities.
"The bank is trying to get the message that it supports the market and economic recovery, as it did in February. This is a step in the right direction and we believe that the BoJ should do more to encourage the economy. "
The BoJ's decision, taken unanimously, carries its asset purchase program to 40,000 billion yen. The rate remains unchanged in a range of zero to 0.1%.
Immediately after the decision of the BoJ, the yen fell against the dollar. He was subsequently erased its losses and, to 6:40 GMT, gaining more than 0.3% against the greenback and the euro.
The BoJ has estimated that it would not "too long" to reach its inflation target of 1%, which could dampen expectations of further aggressive monetary easing measures.
It also found more and more evident that the third world economy was on the road to recovery. A series of indicators released Friday abounded in his direction.
Japan's industrial production rose 1.0% in March, posting its largest gain in three months in favor of a stabilizing external demand and the reconstruction of areas hit the country ; es by the earthquake and tsunami a year ago.
Also in March, retail sales jumped 10.3% year on year, against a 9.8% increase expected by analysts, while household expenditure increased by 3 4% in real terms, after growing 2.3% in February.
The unemployment rate meanwhile remained steady last month at 4.5%.
The Swiss pharmaceutical group Roche warned Wednesday that he would not fall under its offer of $ 6.8 billion (5.18 billion euros) on the Illumina American and he will not extend the period of acceptance thereof.
Its current proposal, $ 51 per share Illumina, can not be improved without penalizing shareholders of Roche, said the group, which should give up its offensive.
The offer expires Friday, Roche said not wanting to prolong it, expressing regret the refusal of the Board to engage in constructive dialogue
Illumina sequencing of genes specialist, self-proclaimed "Apple genomics", for its part has rejected offers of Roche and called its shareholder do the same.
Consulted Wednesday during a general meeting, a majority of them have also shunned.
"Roche will not be affected if it sends a signal showing that it is ready to give up these offers," said Navid Malik of Cenkos Securities.
The acquisition of Illumina would have allowed the Swiss group, world leader in therapies against cancer to benefit from its expertise in sequencing of genes play a role forefront of personalized treatments, which represent the future of the pharmaceutical industry.
Roche did not give up its ambitions for external growth.
"Roche will continue to examine all options and opportunities to further develop its business portfolio to expand its leading position in diagnostics," said Severin Schwan, director General of the Basel group, in a statement.
At their general meeting, shareholders of Illumina supported the four nominees to fill board seats, while rejecting a proposal from Roche to bring to 11 the number of directors with the objective to take a majority.
The prospect of a failure of Roche has not been punished by investors, its title having closed up 0.99%, unlike the Illumina who lost in the third me time to 4.10% to 42.20 dollars.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed up over 1% Friday, the good performance of the action Fast Retailing and relief related to the failure of the rocket launch North Korea has than offset the disappointment that followed the publication of a Chinese GDP worse than expected.
The Nikkei gained 1.19% or 113.20 points to 9,637.99 and the Topix broader took 5.60 points (0.69%) to 815.48.
Growth of the Chinese economy slowed to its slowest pace in almost three years in the first quarter, to 8.1% annual rate against 8.9% last quarter , said Friday the Chinese central statistics office.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected an annual growth of 8.3% of gross domestic product (GDP).
The title Fast Retailing jumped 8.59% after the chain of clothing stores, owner of the Uniqlo brand, announced Thursday a second quarter earnings of its 2011-2012 fiscal year and a soaring increase in its annual targets.
North Korea conducted Friday to fire a rocket at the origin of a strong condemnation from the international community but this attempt was officially ended in failure.
After a record year 2011, property transactions are spread downwards, credit dries up and prices began to decline. In short, all signs of a turnaround in the market are there. The question is what will be its magnitude. . The reasons for the sales record in 2011
The real estate prices continued to rise last year but this has not prevented sales of existing homes to beat their time record. According to the report released Thursday by the notaries of France, some 858,200 transactions were recorded last year, up 9% from 2010. In fact, only sales in the Province recorded a record with a jump of 14% over one year. The Ile de France, however, suffers a fall of 8%. This exceptional performance overall is therefore explained in part by the boom in sales of second homes. And would therefore be the consequence of the change in the taxation on real estate gains, which came into force in February. Indeed, we see a surge in transactions in the Tarn (31%), Correze (28%) and in the Pyrenees-Atlantiques (24%). Add to this the prospect of stopping interest loan in the former in late 2011 that prompted first-time buyers to anticipate an acquisition. Nearly 300,000 homes have indeed been funded in part by this system in 2011.
The reversal observed in early 2012
Such dynamics do not observe this year. The reasons are promoted in 2011 – the planned abolition of tax incentives – rather play against the market. Bazaille Pierre, president of the property market notaries, table and a decline in transactions from 15 to 20% in 2012, representing a range of 700 to 740,000. A reversal has already begun and abruptly, as evidenced by the unprecedented collapse of home loans. According to the Bank of France, the amount of home loans granted in February was the lowest in 32 months, falling by 41% compared to January and by 49% compared to February 2011. And this trend continued in March according to the Housing Credit Monitoring that evokes a fall in the amounts awarded by 36% over the first quarter, compared to the same period last year.
"The decline is alarming. Such a sharp decline was not foreseen, is concerned Mouillard Michel, professor of economics at University of Paris X Nanterre in charge of this observatory. In 2011, production reached 160 credit billion. This year it should rise to 120 billion, or slightly less. " And to emphasize "a drop of this magnitude is unprecedented," even during the 2009 crisis. Ditto when property prices had soared between 1989 and 1992: the decline in home loans that result had reached only 15 to 18%.
For him it is a sign that "everything is going to crash, even on the market of large cities." A pessimism that also feeds on the situation in the nine, the number of housing starts collapsed since the beginning of the year. "We have never seen a level of construction as low since 1986" says he. Notaries, themselves, are less alarmist. They believe that Paris and the vibrant cities of province, like Nice, Lyon, Lille, Bordeaux, Nantes, Montpellier, lower volumes may be limited to around 5%.
The reasons for the reversal
The tax reasons – the end of PTZ + in the old or the disappearance of Scellier in nine – are not the only explanation for the drop in home loans, and therefore transactions. The changing attitude of banks also plays a role. "Besides being confontées to slower growth or even recession, European banks are facing new prudential rules and have a capital ratio more important," said Marc Touati, chief economist of the financial holding company Assya. Incentives to limit risks, they are much more selective in granting loans, imposing more restrictions on prospective borrowers (need input, etc..).
The market downturn also reflects the uncertain economy, the unemployment rate is rising and the prospect of higher taxes for 2012. Results for Nicolas Tarnaud, an expert in real estate, "we fail to commit more over time, we will rent. And first-time buyers are the first affected." Finally, the French expect the outcome of the presidential election.
In short, demand is sluggish, "depressed" for Michel Mouillard. "This is the first time we observed an important loosening of intentions to purchase real estate," said the academic. A recent survey of the observatory Housing Credit / CSA, only 4% of households say they want to buy property in the next six months, down 29% compared to 2009.
Finally, property prices are still at historically high levels. From 2000 to 2011, they more than doubled in France (117%), even more in Ile-de-France (+138%), and almost tripled in Paris (186%). While household incomes, these, only increased by 26% over the same period. Reflecting a shift, according to some, the existence of a housing bubble that can only end up deflating, or even explode.
What price decline in 2012?
The question is whether such a crash is possible. Notaries exclude the hypothesis and favor a simple soft landing. "2012 will be a year of correction and sobering price," sums up Peter Bazaille. For the full year, they expect a 5% decline in the most tense areas in terms of supply as Paris and some regional cities. The rest of the territory, they anticipate a decline "more or less pronounced", 5 to 10% depending on the area.
Marc Touati plans to share a scenario a bit rougher. "Whatever the outcome of the presidential election, the note of France may be degraded, he says. In this case, the rate of OAT (obligation akin to treasure) would increase by one point, and it would be the same for credit rate, which could rise to 6% or 7%. "In this case, Economist expects a decline of 10 to 15% of property prices
. For his part, Michel Mouillart refuses to talk down price. This does not prevent him from displaying his pessimism. "For now, the market collapses, with 20 to 30% less activity in 2012, and the problem is that n 'there is no prospect of a rebound. And we do not see how to get out of bottoming "
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Unemployment in the euro area reached a high of almost fifteen years in February, with more than 17 million unemployed, and economists expect a further deterioration in this years.
The unemployment rate in the 17 countries in the region stood at 10.8% of the workforce, up 0.1 points from January, according to data published are from Eurostat.
"We expect that it continues to rise, reaching 11% by the end of the year," said Raphael Brun-Aguerre, economist at JP Morgan in London.
"There are redundancies in the public sector, incomes are falling, consumption is sluggish. The prospect of economic growth is negative and will reinforce unemployment, "he said
. The level reached in Feb February – for the first time since June 1997 – reflects the tenth consecutive month, an opposite trend to that enjoyed by the U.S. economy, credit e jobs since last year
. Economists are divided on the effectiveness of austerity policies adopted es by European governments to reduce their debt, the economic crisis affecting tax revenues, the purchasing power of consumers and investors' confidence that collapsed the year last.
Other statistics released Monday show a contraction of manufacturing in the euro area for the eighth consecutive month in March, reinforcing fears of recession in the European bloc.
North-South disparities
Despite these negative outlook, the European Central Bank (ECB) should maintain its interest rates to 1% at its monthly meeting Wednesday, rising oil prices keeping inflation above 2%, the limit under which it intends to maintain it.
"With inflation remains stubbornly high in the euro area, there is little hope of a recovery in consumption," said Jennifer McKeown, an analyst at Capital Markets.
The debates between members of the ECB in Frankfurt are more complicated than expected a little more optimistic this year fizzled, the contraction of the activity in manufacturing and construction affecting even Germany, the strongest economy of the area.
On the employment front, the northern countries of Europe, however, remain better off than their southern partners, whose economies are sealed by years of uncontrolled ready , an inadequate labor laws and a very competitive industry.
The unemployment rate remained stable in Germany and to 5.7% of the workforce in February, when it peaked around the Mediterranean, from 9.3% in Italy to 24% in Spain, which holds the sad record of the euro area.
The Spanish government has yet to unveil a great austerity budget aimed at saving € 27 billion more by the end of 2012 to fulfill the goal of deficit of 5.2% of GDP and regain investor confidence.
Beyond the euro area, the unemployment rate in all 27 countries of the European Union amounted to 10.2% of the workforce in February , or 24.5 million unemployed, against 10.1% in January.
Nicolas Sarkozy is the "worst manager in history," Friday accuse Michel Sapin and Jerome Cahuzac, two experts on public finance team of Francois Hollande.
This attack follows the satisfaction of the Head of State after the announcement of a 2011 deficit lower than expected.
"Nicolas Sarkozy is carrying the six worst deficits in history recent budget," wrote the former finance minister and the chairman of the Finance Committee of the National Assembly, in a statement.
They recall that before the crisis, the largest deficits of the Fifth Republic had been achieved when Nicolas Sarkozy was budget minister (1993-1995).
"The figure of 5.2% budget deficit in 2011 compared to the GDP hides the continuing and disturbing increase in debt of France," they continue.
"The other significant figure announced by INSEE, is that the increased revenue from taxes paid by the French," they add.
Nicolas Sarkozy promised if elected to bring the public accounts in balance in 2016, for the first time since 1974. Francois Hollande provides balance in 2017.
Japanese consumer confidence has plummeted in February. Individuals who fear a deterioration in the economic environment are more likely than those who see an improvement. A Prayer for the 23,000 dead and missing caused by the earthquake and tsunami that devastated parts of Japan.
The Japanese consumer confidence has plummeted in February, the index released Monday by the government losing by 0.5 points compared to January, witnessed the continuing concerns of the population about the situation.
The overall confidence index (expressed as data seasonally adjusted) fell to 39.5 points, 40.0 points against the previous month. It evolves rather erratic since this fall, after returning in the summer of his fall recorded by the tsunami of 11 March 2011. A result below 50 indicates that individuals who fear a deterioration in the economic environment are more likely than those who see an improvement.
In February, the global economy has yet given new positive signs after the turbulence in the fall of the worst debt crisis in Europe. But this relative calm did not embellish the mindset of Japanese consumers, who are generally anxious, especially as the challenges placed on the road to the third largest economy are huge, one year after tsunami that devastated the northeast of the archipelago.
In detail, in February, under-employment index fell 1.1 points to 36.0 points, continues to evolve sawtooth since the natural disaster of last spring, despite some relaxation observed on the labor market according to other indicators.
The sub-indicator of future income lost 0.6 points in turn to 38.9 points, many of those surveyed continue to fear that their earnings do not suffer from the economic uncertainties.
The sub-indicator of economic welfare in general has eroded to its share by 0.2 point in February to 40.6 points, and subindex purchase intentions for durable goods stagnated at 42 4 points. This survey was conducted February 15 to 6,720 homes in the archipelago.
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