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Spain has officially fallen into recession in first quarter with a new economic contraction of 0.3% over the first three months of the year, statistics showed Thursday's final National Institute of Statistics.
On the other year, the Spanish gross domestic product fell 0.4%.
Spanish GDP had dropped 0.3% in the last quarter of 2011.
"The recession is advancing at a gradual pace, but if we take into account the latest surveys on activity, it seems that the economic contraction will continue into quarters come, "said Tullia Bucco, an economist at UniCredit.
The Spanish manufacturing sector contracted at its fastest pace in almost three years in April, while the service industry fell for the tenth month of row, according to the purchasing managers' index.
The export sector, the only one that has progressed over the last two quarters, slowed from January to March, the main economic partners of Spain is also experiencing the recession or slowdown.
Madrid seeks to convince investors that Spain is able to consolidate its public finances while reducing expenses, but the cost of restructuring its banking sector worries the markets .
The premium demanded by investors to acquire the Spanish debt rather than German debt has reached this week its highest level since the introduction of the euro, more than 500 basis points.
A few days after announcing a loss for broking $ 2 billion, Jamie Dimon acknowledged his twist on a television program. Some experts believe it could keep his job. The U.S. bank, who wanted a model in terms of risk management, announced a loss of over $ 2 billion related to its trading activities.
"I was wrong all along the line." It is in these terms that Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, returned to the brokerage loss of 2 billion dollars from his bank in the program "Meet the Press" on NBC. A mea culpa-style humiliation for the one who, when the first information output in the Wall Street Journal on the extent of paris risky, there had been "a tempest in a teacup".
The question is how Jamie Dimon is weakened. According to Erik Oja, an analyst at Standard & Poor's, his place as CEO is "absolutely not" in question. "He made amends, there was no attempt to hide the problem," he adds. However, according to the Wall Street Journal, Constable American markets (SEC) is studying the case for whether the bank should have known earlier losses to investors. It seems in any case that JP Morgan has lost much of its credibility.
Until this case, Jamie Dimon was one of the most admired bankers of the United States. He had helped his bank through the crisis without pitfalls and was accustomed to receive praise. Born in New York to a father and a grandfather brokers, Jamie Dimon, 56, began his career as Sandy Weill's right arm, which made the first U.S. bank Citigroup by acquisitions before crisis causes this giant on the brink of bankruptcy.
The two men fell out in 1998 and Jamie Dimon found himself abandoned by his mentor. This was followed by a journey through the desert before leaving for Chicago in 2000 to lead Bank One. In 2004, Jamie Dimon returned to Wall Street through the front door when JPMorgan acquired Bank One. It has become number two behind Bill Harrison until it retired in 2007. Prudent management has enabled JPMorgan to weather the worst financial crisis since the 30's also taking advantage of the defeat of some competitors. JPMorgan has purchased Bear Stearns on the cheap in 2007 and part of Washington Mutual last year becoming the first U.S. bank by assets at Bank of America.
Jaimie Dimon has used this particular well and its good image to combat the financial reform of 2010, which will come into force in July but was delayed. He who had been an ardent supporter of President Obama, but said today "it is hardly more democratic", has not lost an opportunity to rehearse in the media that more regulation would hurt U.S. banks. Cruel twist of fate, it is because of a risky strategy brokerage own derivatives, the kind of problems addressed specifically by the financial reform and its key measure, the rule of Volker, as the statue of Jamie Dimon wobbles .
Qatar continues its buying spree abroad, entering the capital of the British oil giant Royal Dutch Shell and considering a stake in Italy's ENI, according to news reports.
Last month, Qatar had already strengthened the capital of French Total to 3%.
A Shell spokesman confirmed Friday that Qatar's sovereign wealth fund bought shares in the group but did not say how much this participation rose.
The journal Middle East Economic Survey reported earlier that the Qatari sovereign wealth fund was "in very advanced discussions" to take 3% to 5% stake in Shell.
"We are delighted to welcome Qatar Investment Authority as a shareholder in major long term Shell, particularly in view of our excellent strategic relationship with Qatar," said a spokesman in a statement ;.
According to Reuters data, a 5% stake would make the emirate's largest shareholder Shell.
At the London Stock Exchange, Shell action progressed from 0.46% at 10:20 GMT when the European sector index of the energy lost 0.49%.
According to the Middle East Economic Survey, Qatar's sovereign wealth fund is also in talks to take a stake in Italy's ENI. The group did not wish to comment.
Qatari sovereign wealth fund has been very active in recent years, taking stakes in various sectors ranging from automobile manufacturer Porsche at the British bank Barclays.
Qatar is among the top five shareholders and Total also holds interests in several other French companies, including Lagardère, Vinci and Veolia.
Lagardère announced Monday the launch of a bid for the company LeGuide.com, publisher of the website of the same name, at a price of 24 euros per share, valuing the comparator prices at about 84 million euros.
The media group headed by Arnaud Lagardère hopes to complete its digital portfolio that already includes the particular site or financial information Boursier.com Doctissimo.fr , bought in 2008.
The offer of the media group, which is the entire capital of LeGuide.com, will be open from 9 May to 12 June
The price represents a premium of 31.2% over the average as the company three months, 25.4% on average in one month and 20.5% from its last closing price, May 4, Lagardere said in a statement.
"Lagardere Active wishes to preserve the autonomy of management and leadership team LeGuide.com maintain the policy of employment and entrepreneurial culture that made its success since its inception" the company adds.
Present in 14 European countries, LeGuide.com, which compares the offers of more than 76,000 online merchants, claiming an audience of 28.9 million unique visitors.
For the offer to be validated, the total shares held by Lagardère and tendered should be at least 51% stake in the company.
The operation will also receive a green light from regulatory authorities in Germany and Austria.
A Alelmand on two rather see Nicolas Sarkozy won the presidential election, a four qur Francois Hollande. Others do not care.
A German on two rather see Nicolas Sarkozy won the French presidential election and 55% of Germans support the policy of fiscal austerity Angela Merkel, according to a poll published Friday. According to the survey published in the German daily Die Welt, the German answer to 50% "Sarkozy" to the question: "What French President, the German perspective, would be the best choice?".
Of those polled, only 24% cite Francois Hollande. Other (26%) do not know or are not interested in the subject. When asked what they think the appropriate policy in this time of crisis for the euro: "maintain a policy of fiscal austerity or launch programs for growth," 55% of respondents advocate rigor advocated by Chancellor Angela Merkel . Only 33% say they prefer growth programs.
The survey was conducted among a representative sample of 1,004 people between April 30 and May 1.
China widened the fluctuation band of its currency. A measure to reassure the markets following the slowdown in growth, but also a real business strategy. Interview with Sebastien Barbe, senior economist at Credit Agricole-CIB. Doubling the maximum fluctuation of the yuan is a diplomatic act, with a real strategic significance …
China conducted today to double the ceiling of fluctuation of the yuan. Should we consider the measure as a real movement towards liberalization of the Chinese currency? What impact will the measure on the evolution of the currency? Our questions to Sebastien Barbe, senior economist at Credit Agricole-CIB.
As of today, the yuan is really undervalued, or does it happen, as claimed by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, to its equilibrium level?
It is difficult to answer this question with certainty. We lack precise figures which we can really conclude. This is indeed some, however, is that the yuan is much undervalued than five years ago. China has actually taken steps since constant progressive revaluation of its currency. If during the subprime crisis the exchange rate with the dollar was frozen, the yuan has appreciated against many currencies of emerging countries over the period. It is better to resonate well in terms of real effective exchange rate.
Doubling the maximum fluctuation of the Chinese currency translate into a genuine process of internationalization? Does it not rather a symbolic approach?
In reality, these two aspects will play. But the increased ceiling remains above all a measure of scale. Eventually, the Chinese will be able to fluctuate even more their motto. This is a significant step towards liberalization of the yuan. If in the future the Chinese are more confident about international politics, they are probably glad to have introduced this measure. It is a reform that will eventually play and count. At the moment, it's more of an accompaniment of the process of internationalization of the yuan. The symbolic is seen in turn at different levels. A message of confidence, first, compared to the rate of growth. A willingness to reassure the markets, while China's growth tends to slow down. By extending the maximum fluctuation of the yuan, they take the chance to see their currency appreciate more, which would hurt exports and thus their international trade. It's a real soft landing that is looming for the Chinese. We can then analyze this decision as "an act of economic diplomacy" aimed at their trading partners. If China loose a little ground on the control of its currency, it will have greater legitimacy to demand a return to its partners, by being much more demanding. Specifically, it could expect from Europe, its largest importer, that it demonstrates a much better coordination. The measure is reflected, and will add weight to China in its trade relations.
While doubling the currency became effective today, the yuan was at the opening down to the dollar. How do we tend to expect in the future?
The assessment should continue, perhaps not spectacularly, at least as concerns about the European market will also remain strong. Europe is the largest importer of China, a major evaluation on the rise of the yuan should now be discounted. Within a year or two, things may have to evaluate more quickly. To give you a figure, we believe that the yuan could appreciate the full year from 2.5% to 3%. Even up to 4.5% in the event of Europe show signs of recovery. But to date, caution should remain the watchword.
Exchanges of Brazil should grow twice as world trade over the next 15 years a cosmetics factory in Sao Paulo
The Brazilian economy is booming: according to HSBC Trade connections, Trade Forecast (February 2012), the Brazilian business know in the next fifteen years a growth of 163%, double that of world trade (86% ). Over this period, the country is expected to arrive in sixth place worldwide for the growth of its trade. This year, the growth of its economy expected to remain at 3% (as in 2011) and accelerate to above 3.5% in 2013, according to forecasts of Euler Hermes. The organization of the FIFA World Cup in 2014 and the Olympic Games in Rio in 2016 are short-term opportunities.
The big challenge for this huge country, rich in raw materials: building infrastructure (roads, railways, power lines) to open up the interior, where the raw materials, and link it to major cities growing, like Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Belo Horizonte.
Another government priority: to develop industrial production. The country is clearly positioned to become the leading producer of ethanol from sugar cane. The emergence of a middle class eager to consume is also a great opportunity for investors.
Are real opportunities for businesses … provided they are aware of the constraints: complex tax system, high taxes and powerful bureaucracy.
These obstacles do not discourage emerging countries like Vietnam and Indonesia but especially China, whose trade with Brazil expected to increase substantially in coming years. The proof is opening this year's huge port complex Superporto do Açu, one of the largest in the world, and already dubbed "the highway to China".
After a record year 2011, property transactions are spread downwards, credit dries up and prices began to decline. In short, all signs of a turnaround in the market are there. The question is what will be its magnitude. . The reasons for the sales record in 2011
The real estate prices continued to rise last year but this has not prevented sales of existing homes to beat their time record. According to the report released Thursday by the notaries of France, some 858,200 transactions were recorded last year, up 9% from 2010. In fact, only sales in the Province recorded a record with a jump of 14% over one year. The Ile de France, however, suffers a fall of 8%. This exceptional performance overall is therefore explained in part by the boom in sales of second homes. And would therefore be the consequence of the change in the taxation on real estate gains, which came into force in February. Indeed, we see a surge in transactions in the Tarn (31%), Correze (28%) and in the Pyrenees-Atlantiques (24%). Add to this the prospect of stopping interest loan in the former in late 2011 that prompted first-time buyers to anticipate an acquisition. Nearly 300,000 homes have indeed been funded in part by this system in 2011.
The reversal observed in early 2012
Such dynamics do not observe this year. The reasons are promoted in 2011 – the planned abolition of tax incentives – rather play against the market. Bazaille Pierre, president of the property market notaries, table and a decline in transactions from 15 to 20% in 2012, representing a range of 700 to 740,000. A reversal has already begun and abruptly, as evidenced by the unprecedented collapse of home loans. According to the Bank of France, the amount of home loans granted in February was the lowest in 32 months, falling by 41% compared to January and by 49% compared to February 2011. And this trend continued in March according to the Housing Credit Monitoring that evokes a fall in the amounts awarded by 36% over the first quarter, compared to the same period last year.
"The decline is alarming. Such a sharp decline was not foreseen, is concerned Mouillard Michel, professor of economics at University of Paris X Nanterre in charge of this observatory. In 2011, production reached 160 credit billion. This year it should rise to 120 billion, or slightly less. " And to emphasize "a drop of this magnitude is unprecedented," even during the 2009 crisis. Ditto when property prices had soared between 1989 and 1992: the decline in home loans that result had reached only 15 to 18%.
For him it is a sign that "everything is going to crash, even on the market of large cities." A pessimism that also feeds on the situation in the nine, the number of housing starts collapsed since the beginning of the year. "We have never seen a level of construction as low since 1986" says he. Notaries, themselves, are less alarmist. They believe that Paris and the vibrant cities of province, like Nice, Lyon, Lille, Bordeaux, Nantes, Montpellier, lower volumes may be limited to around 5%.
The reasons for the reversal
The tax reasons – the end of PTZ + in the old or the disappearance of Scellier in nine – are not the only explanation for the drop in home loans, and therefore transactions. The changing attitude of banks also plays a role. "Besides being confontées to slower growth or even recession, European banks are facing new prudential rules and have a capital ratio more important," said Marc Touati, chief economist of the financial holding company Assya. Incentives to limit risks, they are much more selective in granting loans, imposing more restrictions on prospective borrowers (need input, etc..).
The market downturn also reflects the uncertain economy, the unemployment rate is rising and the prospect of higher taxes for 2012. Results for Nicolas Tarnaud, an expert in real estate, "we fail to commit more over time, we will rent. And first-time buyers are the first affected." Finally, the French expect the outcome of the presidential election.
In short, demand is sluggish, "depressed" for Michel Mouillard. "This is the first time we observed an important loosening of intentions to purchase real estate," said the academic. A recent survey of the observatory Housing Credit / CSA, only 4% of households say they want to buy property in the next six months, down 29% compared to 2009.
Finally, property prices are still at historically high levels. From 2000 to 2011, they more than doubled in France (117%), even more in Ile-de-France (+138%), and almost tripled in Paris (186%). While household incomes, these, only increased by 26% over the same period. Reflecting a shift, according to some, the existence of a housing bubble that can only end up deflating, or even explode.
What price decline in 2012?
The question is whether such a crash is possible. Notaries exclude the hypothesis and favor a simple soft landing. "2012 will be a year of correction and sobering price," sums up Peter Bazaille. For the full year, they expect a 5% decline in the most tense areas in terms of supply as Paris and some regional cities. The rest of the territory, they anticipate a decline "more or less pronounced", 5 to 10% depending on the area.
Marc Touati plans to share a scenario a bit rougher. "Whatever the outcome of the presidential election, the note of France may be degraded, he says. In this case, the rate of OAT (obligation akin to treasure) would increase by one point, and it would be the same for credit rate, which could rise to 6% or 7%. "In this case, Economist expects a decline of 10 to 15% of property prices
. For his part, Michel Mouillart refuses to talk down price. This does not prevent him from displaying his pessimism. "For now, the market collapses, with 20 to 30% less activity in 2012, and the problem is that n 'there is no prospect of a rebound. And we do not see how to get out of bottoming "
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European shares ended lower Tuesday, in response to statistics from the U.S. consumer confidence but more importantly to the decline in Total, which has stalled and resulted in values energy in its fall.
In Paris the CAC 40 showed a loss of 0.92% to 3469.59 points. Elsewhere in Europe, Frankfurt finally stable (0.00%), Madrid lost 1.03%, 0.56% and London Eurofirst 300 0.50%.
In the wake of Total, which lost 6%, the values of European oil and gas realize the worst performing sector of the day, with a loss of 2.37%.
The market is worried about the consequences of the gas leak occurred Sunday on the platform of the Elgin-Franklin French oil tanker in the North Sea.
U.S. consumer confidence fell in March and inflation expectations have never been higher for 10 months, according to the Conference Board index released Tuesday.
For its part, Wall Street pauses, ranging from missing a day after rising to peaks of nearly four years. However, the S & P 500 is on track to register its strongest quarterly performance since 2009.
Markets have also heard of another American Statistical relatively sluggish. The prices of houses have not changed in January, suggesting that this struggling sector just to turn the corner, shows the S & P Case-Shiller index released Tuesday.
Total accuses its biggest loss since December 2008, following discussions that represented a volume of five and a half times its daily average of 90 days.
"It reminds the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010. Difficult to know the extent of damage at this stage but when in doubt, it is better to sell. The action does BP is never recovered, "said a trader based in Paris
. BG, which has a stake of 14% in the deposit Elgin, lost 2.9%
. Philippe Gijsels (Fortis Global Markets) emphasizes that portfolio adjustments at the end of quarter amplified gains in the FTSEurofirst 300, which makes it vulnerable. "This is the usual set of month-end, which imposes an upward pressure to the side and makes the market very overbought. I think the beginning of next term will see profit-taking, "he said
. For Lynden Branigan (Barclays Capital) would require the FTSEurofirst 300 plunges below 1,050 points to break the uptrend. But he is relatively optimistic and sees a buying interest occur between 1069 and 1072, the Friday low and the 50-day moving average, respectively, with resistance at 1109, the peak in March.
Italy and Spain have sold debt without concern Tuesday, what can be interpreted as a sign of market confidence in their ability to recover their public finances and reform itself.
Italy has placed 3.8 billion of zero coupon bonds to two years with a yield of 2.35%, the lowest since November 2010, against 3.01% during the operational previous generation.
Spain sold 2.6 billion euros of treasury bills at three and six months yields moving in opposite directions to each other.
The Italian paper, however, suffered in the secondary market shortly after the auction, traders were saying that the award came too soon after the big award of € 7.3 billion of indexed bonds last week.
The dollar rose slightly against the euro and more markedly against the yen, maintaining its gains despite a statistical lackluster consumer confidence.
This increase comes in a market hit and little fluctuation, traders cautiously gauging the remarks made yesterday by the Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke.
Growth of the U.S. economy will have to accelerate job creation that do fall further unemployment, Ben Bernanke said Monday.
Oil prices have turned down after Bloomberg, citing an official from the energy sector, had reported that the U.S. planned to tap into strategic reserves ; cal.
U.S. officials have been saying for months that draw on reserves is one of the options available to address market disruption. Reuters reported this month that London was ready to work with Washington to take on strategic reserves in the current year.
No details were available on information from Bloomberg, which is not known whether it signals a change in tone or intent on the part of the U.S. government.
The Slovenian subsidiary of Renault announced Thursday it would cut production in April and would eliminate 13% of positions at about 2220, due to lower sales in Europe.
"We have had in recent months a decline in orders resulting from a severe contraction of the European market. Because market conditions do not improve (…) we don ' will more probably night shift on April 26, "said the subsidiary Revoz, which produces models Twingo, Clio and Wind.
Production Revoz had peaked at 212,860 cars in 2009, falling to 174,127 in 2011. The subsidiary did not provide a target for this year.
The night shift existed since 2007 but was suspended from May to September 2011 due to a shortage of electronic parts produced in Japan, a direct consequence of earthquake of March 11.
Revoz said she planned to increase the number of positions in the second half of 2013, when it will produce two new models to be developed under the partnership between Renault-Nissan and Daimler.
The new car registrations have fallen sharply again in February in the euro area, mainly due to the weakness of French and Italian markets, announced Thursday the European manufacturers association of motor.
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